Quantum computing has emerged as a groundbreaking advancement and a significant hurdle,
especially regarding data encryption. The year 2023 represents a turning point in this journey as
quantum computing capabilities make great strides forward, raising concerns about the security of
current encryption methods. This analysis dives into the progress of quantum computing, its
potential impact on existing encryption standards, and the dedicated efforts being made to develop
cryptography that can withstand the power of quantum computers.
As we enter 2023, quantum computing continues to evolve, focusing more on practical
applications rather than solely achieving hardware milestones. Developments such as IBM’s Heron
processor, a modular quantum computing unit, represent a notable shift towards achieving scalable
quantum computing [1]. However, it is essential to note that current quantum computers only have
a hundred qubits, which falls far short of the estimated 20 million qubits required to crack RSA
encryption [2]. This suggests that the immediate threat to existing encryption methods, such as
RSA, may be exaggerated [3].
There is a strategy known as “harvest now, decrypt later,” where encrypted data is stored in
anticipation of future decryption capabilities made possible by advancements in quantum
technology. This approach raises concerns about the long-term effectiveness of encryption
methods and emphasizes the need for immediate deployment of post-quantum cryptography. It
should be noted, though, that effective quantum attacks have not yet been developed [4]. The MIT
Technology Review article highlights the uncertainty surrounding one-way functions, which serve
as the foundation for current encryption techniques and raises concerns about potential
vulnerabilities in our data [4].
In response to these concerns, significant efforts are underway to develop quantum cryptography
(PQC). However, there have been setbacks in the NIST initiative in this field, including
vulnerabilities found in algorithms like SIKE that were designed to be quantum-resistant [2]. As
highlighted in a Nature report, the difficulties experienced by algorithms like SIKE and Rainbow
underscore the challenges involved in creating post-quantum cryptography (PQC) schemas [2]. By
2022, NIST had already announced its initial four contenders for PQC standards, with the
finalization expected by 2024 [2].
The pursuit of quantum standards is a worldwide endeavor. Organizations such as the German
Federal Office for Information Security and the Chinese Association for Cryptologic Research
actively contribute to this domain [2]. This collaborative effort on a scale is crucial in establishing
a concise collection of internationally agreed-upon standards vital for seamless Internet
communication [2].
The transition to PQC entails moving from vulnerable encryption methods to quantum attacks and
adopting quantum-safe or quantum-secure cryptography, often called “crypto agility.” This
transition will occur gradually. Necessitates the simultaneous use of quantum-ready algorithms
alongside existing cryptographic capabilities in a hybrid fashion [5]. Striking the balance between
security and practicality poses a challenge since longer keys, while more secure, also demand
additional time and computing resources [2].
Despite quantum computing’s limitations when it comes to breaking encryption, there is an urgent
need to develop and implement PQC due to quantum computers’ potential future capabilities. As
mentioned in an article by the MIT Technology Review, the uncertain nature of one-way functions
in cryptography poses a risk to our data security [6]. The importance of research and development
in quantum-resistant cryptographic methods becomes apparent when considering the need to
safeguard data against future attacks from quantum computers.
In summary, while quantum computing is still in its stages as of 2023, it presents a theoretical
challenge to current encryption methods. Despite advancements like IBM’s quantum computing
units, practical quantum computing cannot break widely used encryption standards such as RSA.
The concept of “harvest decrypt later” emphasizes the long-term risks associated with progress in
quantum computing. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) has emerged as a focus within the
cryptographic community, with initiatives like the NIST standardization process leading the way
despite facing challenges such as vulnerabilities in promising algorithms like SIKE. The global
effort to establish standards related to quantum-resistant techniques highlights the urgency and
complexity of this undertaking. As quantum technology and cryptography evolve, proactive and
innovative approaches are necessary to ensure data security in an era dominated by quantum
capabilities. Having said that, it is essential to take a well-rounded approach that acknowledges
the immediate and potential future challenges that arise from quantum computing in the field of
cryptography.
- MIT Technology Review. (2023, January 6). What’s next for quantum computing? Retrieved from https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/06/1066317/whats-next-for-quantumcomputing/
- Nature. (2023). Keeping secrets in a quantum world. Retrieved from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03336-4
- Ars Technica. (2023, January). Fear not: RSA encryption won’t fall to quantum computing
anytime soon. Retrieved from https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/01/fearnot-rsa-encryption-wont-fall-to-quantum-computing-anytime-soon/- Emeritus. (n.d.). Harvest Now, Decrypt Later: How Safe is Our Encrypted Data? Retrieved
from https://emeritus.org/in/learn/harvest-now-decrypt-later-quantum-computing/- SecurityWeek. (2023). Cyber Insights 2023: Quantum Computing and the Coming
Cryptopocalypse. Retrieved from https://www.securityweek.com/cyber-insights-2023-
quantum-computing-and-the-coming-cryptopocalypse/- MIT Technology Review. (2023, October 19). Inside the quest for unbreakable encryption.
Retrieved from https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/19/1081389/unbreakableencryption-quantum-computers-cryptography-math-problems/